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We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014047091
The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strike and time to maturity form an Implied … Volatility Surface (IVS). Practical applications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamics through a small … investigating long range dependence in the factor loadings series. Our result reveals that shocks to volatility persist for a very …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003633787
characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in … market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and forecasting of market volatility. The implication is that models … that accomodate long memory hold the promise of improved long-run volatility forecast as well as accurate pricing of long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636008
volatility (d = 0.80) is also confirmed. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010367157
The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strike and time to maturity form an Implied … Volatility Surface (IV S). Practical applications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamics through a small … investigating long range dependence in the factor loadings series. Our result reveals that shocks to volatility persist for a very …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966247
This paper studies the properties of predictive regressions for asset returns in economic systems governed by persistent vector autoregressive dynamics. In particular, we allow for the state variables to be fractionally integrated, potentially of different orders, and for the returns to have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312310
This paper aims to test whether equity returns are predictable over various horizons. We propose a reliable and powerful nonparametric test to examine the predictability of equity returns, which can be interpreted as a signal-to-noise ratio test. Our comprehensive in-sample and out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307424
Following recent advances in the non-parametric realized volatility approach, we separately measure the discontinuous … volatility models. We analyze the distributional properties of the jump measures vis-à-vis the corresponding realized volatility … accuracy of high-frequency volatility models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004411
In the past decade, the popularity of realized measures and various linear models for volatility forecasting has … the ongoing debate with a comprehensive evaluation of multiple-step-ahead volatility forecasts of energy markets using … commonly used to forecast realized volatility, this paper also contributes to the literature by coupling realized measures with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429924
high-frequency data better and produce more accurate forecasts than competing realized volatility and option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855793