This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …

estimates. We formally test the forecast performance of pooled vs. heterogeneous estimators over a hold-back period and find …

returns. Our results suggest that the decomposition model produces higher forecast and directional accuracy than any of the …

predictions of euro exchange rates leads to improvements in predictive accuracy as measured by the mean square forecast error …. While the forecasting error of the combined forecast tends to be systematically smaller than that of the individual model … significantly in terms of squared forecast errors. Direction of change statistics, on the other hand, are significantly improved by …

function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro …

data of exchange-rate forecasts look rational, and the loss function seems to depend not only on the forecast error. …

evidence of nonlinearity and/or higher moment influences which seriously questions the habit of forecast and model evaluation … significance of the differences with our more general measures of forecast performance …

rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates …