Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide … only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show … that the current high-inflation environment induces respondents to allocate considerable probability to the rightmost open …

This paper proposes that there is a dynamic relationship between interest and inflation rates that are jointly … inflation and interest rates wherein causality runs from inflation to interest rates. By contrast, the Wicksell process is the … negative relationship between the two rates with causality from interest to inflation rates. While Fisher and Wicksell theories …

Since the adoption of inflation targeting, the seasonal appears to be the component that explains the major part of … inflation’s total variation in Mexico. In this context, we study the performance of seasonal time series models to forecast … short-run inflation. Using multi-horizon evaluation techniques, we examine the real-time forecasting performance of four …

Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper … suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where … money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad …

year ahead inflation. In addition, it turns out that the performance of MDS model forecasting is competitive in comparison … with other models found to be useful in the inflation forecasting literature. …

This paper tests a version of the rational expectations hypothesis using 'fixed-event' inflation forecasts for the UK … rolling event data. The results show evidence of a positive bias in inflation expectations. Evidence for inefficiency is much …

inflation. During crises periods, the strength of the transmission of inflation uncertainty shocks from one country to another … tends to intensify. This paper examines empirical methodologies to measure the strength of the interdependence of inflation … uncertainty between the UK and the euro area. We first estimate inflation uncertainty by expost forecast errors from a bivariate …