This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from signrestricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international trade...

In this paper we analyze the impact of uncertainty shocks on the Brazilian economy. We use a general equilibrium model in such a way that the transmission channels of the shocks could be identified and we solve the model using a third order approximation for the policy functions since lower...

This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic...

The paper investigates exchange rate cycles and their relationship to the business cycle in 7 major emerging market economies. We document the presence of periodic cycles in nominal US-dollar exchange rates and show that these are closely aligned with cycle frequencies in real output. Joint...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and five. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign...