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The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non-CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782247
Using a multi-level factor model, we estimate a global factor and country factors using the real macroeconomic variables of 71 countries from 1970 to 2018. The global factor successfully captures economic fluctuations in the world economy and primarily comoves with the business cycles of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236579
The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non-CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014057360
unidirectional causality from the US GDP to Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and China. But the slump in the US stock price indices will cause … the stock market recession in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, but not China …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125445
of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, the results pointed towards large spillovers from the shutdown in China to … related to the shift of preferences towards goods with a large China valued-added content played a relevant role …. Interestingly, the impact of Chinese supply chain shocks is not limited to manufacturing sectors that are highly exposed to China …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459723
In this paper we analyze European business cycles before and under EMU. Across the two periods we find 1) a significant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) significant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely unchanged. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850663
This paper examines the degree of trade integration and business cycle synchronisation between eight Balkan countries and the Euro area over the period 2000:1-2011:4. The main findings are that Slovenia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia exhibit a high level of openness relative to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010459812
We assess the business cycle synchronization features of aggregate output in the 27 EU countries using annual data for the period 1970-2009. In particular, we compute measures of synchronisation for private consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135661
What are the effects of financial integration on global comovement? Using a standard two-country DSGE model, I show that in response to country-specific supply shocks higher exposure to foreign assets leads to lower cross-country output correlations, while the opposite is true for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014463371
The former EU president Jean-Claude Junker has proposed that all countries of the European Union should also adopt the euro as their currency and recent research has shown that countries currently pursuing this goal indeed fulfill the classical Optimal Currency Area (OCA) criterion of positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499619