We explore origin-destination forecasting of commodity flows between 15 Spanish regions, using data covering the period from 1995 to 2004. The one-year-ahead forecasts are based on a recently introduced spatial autoregressive variant of the traditional gravity model. Gravity (or spatial...

We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical regression model that extends the traditional least-squares regression model used to estimate gravity or spatial interaction relations involving origin-destination flows. Spatial interaction models attempt to explain variation in flows from n origin regions...