This paper deals with stress tests for credit risk and shows how exploiting the discretion when setting up and implementing a model can drive the results of a quantitative stress test for default probabilities. For this purpose, we employ several variations of a CreditPortfolioView-style model...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing that is aimed at assessing banks’ capital adequacy, financial fragility, and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on...

The Federal Reserve's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) requires large bank holding companies (BHCs) to project losses under stress scenarios. In this paper, we propose multiple benchmarks for operational loss projections and document the industry distribution relative to these...

This study examines the exposure of microfinance institutions to liquidity-, interest rate and foreign exchange (FX) risk. Using manually collected data from microfinance institutions' financial reporting, I find that the microfinance sector faces minimal liquidity risk, high interest rate risk...

Purpose: This paper aims to offer an empirical study of the impact of institutional quality on the banking system risk and credit risk. Design/methodology/approach: Applying cross-sectional dependent tests and stationary tests to check the property of our sample, the panel corrected standard...

The regulatory use of banks' internal models makes capital requirements more risk-sensitive but invites regulatory arbitrage. I develop a framework to study bank regulation with strategic selection of risk models. A bank supervisor can discourage arbitrage by auditing risk models, and implements...

This article contributes to the quantification of systemic risk within the Moroccan banking system, focusing on listed banks. We utilize indicators derived from Tail Value at Risk and expectiles risk measures, as introduced by El qalli and Said (2013) (El Qalli & Said, 2023), to measure the...

Bank holding companies (BHCs) can be complex organizations, conducting multiple lines of business through many distinct legal entities and across a range of geographies. While such complexity raises the costs of bank resolution when organizations fail, the effect of complexity on BHCs' broader...

Stress testing served us well as a crisis management tool, and we see it applied increasingly to peacetime oversight of banks and banking systems. Stress testing is rapidly become the dominant supervisory tool on both sides of the Atlantic. Yet the objectives and certainly the conditions are...

This paper outlines a framework based on microdata and a structural model to gauge credit risk in banks' exposures to non-financial firms. Sectoral risk factors are accounted for using a multi-factor model. We use expected and unexpected losses as indicators of credit risk stemming from the...