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The returns to carry trades are controversially discussed as there seems to be no unifying risk-based explanation of … currency returns and stock returns. This paper addresses carry trade returns from a risk pricing perspective and examines if … these returns can be connected to persistent cross-country differences of risk aversion. Therefore, I analyze a data set of …
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Using a measure of global political risk, relative to the U.S., that captures unexpected political conditions, we show … that political risk is priced in the cross section of currency momentum and contains information beyond other risk factors … such strategies are compensated for the exposure to the global political risk of those currencies they hold, i.e., the past …
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This paper presents the first comprehensive examination of liquidity in the global foreign exchange (FX) swap market … main findings: First, FX swap liquidity is fragmented across currencies, tenors, and time. Second, liquidity conditions …
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This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero...
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The forward premium anomaly has served as the theoretical foundation of positive returns from currency speculation. Nonlinearity in the relation of currency returns and interest rate differentials should be included in speculator expectations. Within narrow ranges, the counteracting effects of...
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The paper investigates firms' willingness to match the currency composition of their assets and liabilities and their incentives to deviate from perfect matching. Using detailed information at the loan contract level for the Hungarian non-financial corporate sector, the paper provides strong...
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