We investigate the impact of local and global macroeconomic factors on Eurobonds and local currency issued bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa, at different points on the yield curve. Using a unique proprietary data set collected from local authorities, central banks and independent international...

In this study we trace changes in sovereign bond spreads over major phases of the recent international financial crisis for representative sovereign bond portfolios drawn from 43 countries, including 20 emerging economies. We extend upon traditional factor analyses and utilize propensity score...

How do financial markets respond to concerns over debt sustainability and the level of public debt in emerging markets? We introduce a measure of debt sustainability – the difference between the debt stabilizing primary balance and the primary balance – in an otherwise standard spread...

This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the term structure of sovereign spreads and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which accounts for more than 50% of the J. P. Morgan EMBIG index. The real exchange rate dynamics, modeled as a pure...

In this article, we analyse how much of the reduction in emerging markets spreads can be ascribed to specific factors - linked to the improvement in the 'fundamentals' of a given country - rather than to common factors - linked to global liquidity conditions and agents' degree of risk aversion....

While simultaneously accounting for the effects of sovereign and corporate bond spreads, we document that emerging market economy (EME) equity returns have a strong predictive power for future output growth and account for a significant fraction of output fluctuations in these countries. Our...

Using a novel financial data-set which covers an extensive time period between 1995-2012, we test for the impact of currency denomination of bonds on Asian firms' survival probabilities. Our data span two financial crises: the 1997-98 Asian crisis and the 2007-09 global financial crisis. We find...

This paper documents a set of stylized facts about leverage and financial fragility in the non-financial corporate sector in emerging markets since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Corporate debt vulnerability indicators prior to the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) attributed to corporate...

To study the role of elections in financial market instability, we focus on the role of credit risk pricing during elections from 2004 to 2007 in thirteen emerging market economies. We use a unique dataset of daily credit default swap (CDS) pricing, with standard macroeconomic controls, to study...

We study the relationship between default and the maturity structure of the debt portfolio of a Sovereign, under uncertainty. The Sovereign faces a trade-off between a future costly default and a high current fiscal effort. This results into a debt crisis in case a large initial issuance of long...