The paper investigates the effect of interest-rate variance on the shape of the <p> yield curve using a bivariate 2-state Markov switching model for the short-rate changes <p> and the yield curve slope. The two states are characterized by the variance of the shortrate <p> changes: Low and high variance....</p></p></p>

Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their statistical properties from the primary random variables used in microeconometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary variables...

Various papers indicate that the yield-curve has superior predictive power for U.S. recessions. However, there is controversial evidence on the stability of the predictive relationship and it has remained unclear how the persistence of the underlying binary recession indicator should be taken...

Empirical modeling of the yield curve is often inconsistent with absence of arbitrage. In fact, many parsimonious models, like the popular Nelson-Siegel model, are inconsistent with absence of arbitrage. In other cases, arbitrage-free models are often used in inconsistent ways by recalibrating...

This paper provides a dynamic analysis of the responsiveness of asset markets to monetary policy path revisions. In an era of increased transparency and gradualism in policy making, one might expect an increased response to path revisions in asset markets as the policy actions become more...

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the U.K.). The data used range from 1991:Q1 to 2009:Q1. For...

This paper assesses the relation between the yield curve and the main macroeconomic variables in the U.S. between early 1960s and 2009 across time and frequencies, using wavelet analyses. The shape of the yield curve is modelled by latent factors corresponding to its level, slope and curvature,...

The literature on the yield curve deals with the capacity to predict the future inflation and the future real growth from the term structure of the interest rates. The aim of the paper is to verify this predictive power of the yield curve for the European Union at 16 countries in the 1995-2008...

This paper confirms that a regime-switching model out-performs a linear VAR model in terms of understanding the system dynamics of asset returns. Impulse responses of REIT returns to either the federal funds rate or the interest rate spread are much larger initially but less persistent....

We solve a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which the representative household has Epstein and Zin recursive preferences. The parameters governing preferences and technology are estimated by means of maximum likelihood using macroeconomic data and asset prices, with a...