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We use a newly available dataset of euro area quarterly national accounts fiscal data and construct multi-variate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government deficit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604983
The analysis of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies in the euro area has been traditionally limited by the absence of quarterly fiscal data. To overcome this problem, we provide two new databases in this paper. Firstly, we construct a quarterly database of euro area fiscal variables for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605178
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009672319
The question of what is a sustainable public debt is paramount in the macroeconomic analysis of fiscal policy. This question is usually formulated as asking whether the outstanding public debt and its projected path are consistent with those of the government's revenues and expenditures (i.e....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015486
In the present paper it is pointed out that government debt is an obstacle to economic growth. To my belief, the remedy to this problem is to encourage consumption and not to impose taxes onto the consumers. Because, any decrease in their wages and salaries for temporary budgetary purposes, will...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152967
Pursuit of price stability may, but need not, exacerbate output fluctuations. This paper discusses the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank, the intermediate targets that this should entail, and implications for accountability, transparency, and reputation. Country-specific shocks will...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782216
At the close of the global financial crises, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and later Spain, experienced severe economic and financial crises. This paper compares the adjustment programs undertaken by the four countries. The sudden-stop of capital flows led to substantial official assistance by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013668
This paper considers the impact of changes in governments' payment discipline on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025488
Short-term fiscal indicators based on public accounts data are often used by European policy makers. They represent one of the main sources of publicly available intra-annual fiscal information. Nevertheless, these indicators have received limited attention from the academic literature analysing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316531
This paper explains why EMU countries seem unable or unwilling to undertake structural reforms of public expenditure. One of the reasons is political. What public expenditure reforms might be pursued without changing the political system? Without political reforms, technical improvements made to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317969