Marzo, Massimiliano; Zagaglia, Paolo - Nationalekonomiska institutionen, Stockholms Universitet - 2007
This paper studies the forecasting properties of linear GARCH models for closing-day futures prices on crude oil, first position, traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange from January 1995 to November 2005. In order to account for fat tails in the empirical distribution of the series, we...