This paper presents evidence that the foreign exchange appreciation is predictable by the currency variance risk premium at a medium 6-month horizon and by the stock variance risk premium at a short 1-month horizon. Although currency variance risk premiums are highly correlated with each other...

This paper investigates the variance risk premium in an international setting. First, I provide new evidence on the basic stylized facts traditionally documented for the US. I show that while the variance premiums in several countries are, on average, positive and display significant time...

I extend the evidence on the basic stylized facts documented for the U.S. variance risk premium (VP) and show that, while VPs in other countries are also positive and time varying, they do not have predictive power for domestic stock returns, in contrast to the implications of existing...

This paper investigates the variance risk premium in an international setting. First, I provide new evidence on the basic stylized facts traditionally documented for the US. I show that while the variance premiums in several other countries are, on average, positive and display significant time...

We obtain ex ante estimates of risk premia for G10 currency pairs using cross-sectional data on exchange rate options. Option prices are well-matched by a non-Gaussian, two-factor model, consistent with evidence from realized currency returns. We find that option-implied currency risk premia...

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero...

This paper studies the time-series predictability of currency carry trades, constructed by selecting currencies to be bought or sold against the U.S. dollar, based on forward discounts. Changes in a commodity index, currency volatility and, to a lesser extent, a measure of liquidity predict...

We show that a global imbalance risk factor that captures the spread in countries' external imbalances and their propensity to issue external liabilities in foreign currency explains the cross-sectional variation in currency excess returns. The economic intuition is simple: net debtor countries...