We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we … used a statistical, a utility-based, and an options-based criterion to evaluate volatility forecasts. Our main result is … that the statistical and economic value of volatility forecasts based on real-time data is comparable to the value of …

We examine the performance of volatility models that incorporate features such as long (short) memory, regime …-t). Second, we perform a comprehensive panel forecasting analysis of the MSM models as well as other competing volatility models … (GMM) estimation are both suitable for MSM-t models, (ii) empirical panel forecasts of MSM-t models show an improvement …

Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the … employing the Gordon Growth Model and using an estimation process for the dividend growth rate that was suggested by Barsky and …, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably …