. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and … one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics …

Since the adoption of inflation targeting, the seasonal appears to be the component that explains the major part of … inflation’s total variation in Mexico. In this context, we study the performance of seasonal time series models to forecast … short-run inflation. Using multi-horizon evaluation techniques, we examine the real-time forecasting performance of four …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail … ; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …