In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...

A personal bankruptcy law that allows for a 'fresh start' after bankruptcy reduces the individual risk involved in entrepreneurial activity. On the other hand, as risk shifts to creditors who recover less of their credit after a debtor's bankruptcy, lenders may charge higher interest rates or...

The time-continuous discrete-state Markov process is a model for rating transitions. One parameter, namely the intensity to migrate to an adjacent rating state, implies an ordinal rating to have an intuitive metric. State-specific intensities generalize the state-stationarity. Observing Markov...

Group-specific estimations can significantly improve the predictive power of accountingbased rating models. This is shown using a binary logistic regression model applied to the Deutsche Bundesbank's USTAN dataset, which contains 300,000 financial statements provided by German companies for the...

This paper presents a dynamic multi-equation model based on a balance sheet identity, where technical aspects of capital structure are highlighted through separately observing debt and equity and their relationship to investment. Additionally, leverage dynamics are interpreted in their role for...

Cyclicality in the losses of bank loans is important for bank risk management. Because loans have a different risk profile than bonds, evidence of cyclicality in bond losses need not apply to loans. Based on unique data we show that the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a...

This paper focuses on the development of both failure prediction models on a paired sample and a random sample of small and medium-sized firms with head offices located in the region of Castilla y León (Spain), in order to prove if the predictive power of the developed models is affected by the...

We develop a macroeconomic portfolio stress test that is specifically geared towards small and medium-sized banks. We combine a credit risk stress test which simulates credit impairments via a CreditMetrics type multi-factor portfolio model with an income stress test in the form of dynamic panel...

There are many studies of bank performance and bank failure in the literature. Most of these studies used banking ratios as variables in their models without giving consideration to their appropriateness, nor was much consideration given to the stability of those ratios through time and across...

Much work has been done in the last two decades to estimate the determinants of bankruptcy of large firms. Very little work appears to have been attempted in the area of small firm bankruptcy. This paper goes some way to remedy the deficiency by estimating conditional logistic probability...