Introduction -- Fundamentals of commodity economics : supply -- Fundamentals of commodity economics : demand -- Fundamentals of commodity derivatives -- Economics & financial activities behind derivatives -- Real optionality & valuation -- Commodity beta : diversification and inflation...

How effective are “smart” sanctions in imposing costs on an adversary? We consider this question in a model where a targeted regime may choose to “shield” strategically important firms from harm. Using detailed firm and individual data, we estimate the impact on firm performance from...

Accurately measuring oil production in low-governance contexts is an important task. Many terrorist organizations and insurgencies -- including the Islamic State group, also known as ISIL/ISIS or Daesh -- tap oil as a revenue source. Understanding spatial and temporal variation in production in...

This paper proposes a new methodology for differentiating oil demand and supply shocks using the information content of forward-looking asset prices for crude oil and refined products. Building upon the industry folk wisdom that demand and supply shocks have asymmetric passthrough dynamics...

Accurately measuring oil production in low-governance contexts is an important task. Many terrorist organizations and insurgencies -- including the Islamic State group, also known as ISIL/ISIS or Daesh -- tap oil as a revenue source. Understanding spatial and temporal variation in production in...

How effective are “smart” sanctions in imposing costs on an adversary? We consider this question in a model where a targeted regime may choose to “shield” strategically important firms from harm. Using detailed firm and individual data, we estimate the impact on firm performance from...

As the world's most traded commodity, oil production is typically well monitored and analyzed. It also has established links to geopolitics, international relations, and security. Despite this attention, the illicit production, refining, and trade of oil and derivative products occur all over...