monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

The paper uses dynamic quantile regressions to estimate and forecast the conditional distribution of euro …-area inflation. As in a Phillips curve relationship we assume that inflation quantiles depend on past inflation, the output gap, and … distribution. Overall, the quantile regression approach describes the distribution of inflation better than a benchmark univariate …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are … component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead … inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …