Theory predicts that the equilibrium real interest rate, r*t, and the perceived trend in inflation, ð*t, are key …*t substantially increases the accuracy of long-range interest rate forecasts, helps predict excess bond returns, improves estimates of …

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the …-based ex-post measures of macroeconomic risk. Inflation uncertainty is an important driver of bond premia, but the relation … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation …

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond returns. The main predictor factors are associated with point … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using … excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve … both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market …

This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond …

shocks predict negative real bond risk premium and positive inflation risk premium. Since these two effects offset each other … bond yield, breakeven inflation, and nominal bond yield respond differently to oil supply and demand shocks …Compared with stocks, bonds are more directly affected by fluctuations in oil prices through the expected inflation …

yields have strong predictive power for bond risk premia, in contrast to the factors based on yield levels. We also provide … insights into the impact this has on the added value of macro data for bond risk premia predictions and the recent conclusion …

Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of … dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield spreads). The movements of equity and bond yields are driven mainly by … returns/yields and nominal bond returns/yields switched from positive to negative after the late 1990s, owing mainly to a …

This paper presents an equilibrium bond-pricing model that jointly explains the upward-sloping nominal and real yield … curves and the violation of the expectations hypothesis. Instead of relying on the inflation risk premium, the ambiguity …

Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal … about inflation and growth. Ambiguity can help resolve the puzzling fact that upward-sloping yield curves have persisted … despite positive inflation shocks changing from negative to positive news about growth in the last twenty years. Investors …