I investigate the predictive role of the aggregate dividend-payout ratio (de) for future economic activity. A VAR-based variance decomposition shows that the main driving force of variation in de is long-run predictability of earnings growth, with dividend growth predictability assuming a very...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open...

We estimate monetary policy surprises (sentiment) from the perspective of three different textual sources: direct central bank communication (FOMC statements and press conferences), news articles, and Twitter posts during FOMC announcement days. Textual sentiment across sources is highly...

In this paper, we analyze the effect of transport infrastructure investments in railways. As a testing ground, we use data from a new historical database that includes annual panel data on approximately 2,400 Swedish rural geographical areas during the period 1860-1917. We use a staggered event...

In this paper, we analyze the effect of transport infrastructure investments in railways. As a testing ground, we use data from a new historical database that includes annual panel data on approximately 2,400 Swedish rural geographical areas during the period 1860-1917. We use a staggered event...

The paper is based on a lecture in the Beesley Series delivered at the Institute of Directors in London, in October 2012. Initially, it points out that transport infrastructure in the UK prior to the 20th century was planned and developed largely by private interests. Today private sector...

On March 31st, 2023, the Italian data protection authority found that ChatGPT violated data protection laws and banned the service in Italy, providing a natural experiment to assess the economic consequences of generative AI. Leveraging this event, we show that Italian firms with greater...

Uniswap is a decentralized exchange (DEX) and was first launched on November 2, 2018 on the Ethereum mainnet [1] and is part of an Ecosystem of products in Decentralized Finance (DeFi). It replaces a traditional order book type of trading common on centralized exchanges (CEX) with a...

How do you value companies which have IPOed recently? How do you compare them amongst their peers? Valuing companies using a linear extrapolation of their revenues and profits leads to an ingenious method to benchmark stocks against each other. Here we present such a method, dubbed the growth...