This paper employs the post — Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (post — LASSO) to make rolling 1-month--ahead currency excess return forecasts using all other currencies' lagged forward discounts as candidate predictors. The trading strategy of buying (selling) quintile...

Using a news-based index of geopolitical risk (GPR), we document a strong negative relationship between firm-level corporate investment and GPR. When the GPR index doubles, investment rate in the next quarter declines by 14% of its sample mean. The effect is more pronounced for firms with more...

Using both market-wide and firm-level illiquidity measures of the stock, bond, and CDS markets, we find that the co-movements of illiquidity across markets increase significantly during the recent global financial crisis. Moreover, the degree of co-movements remains significantly higher in the...

We find that news-based measures of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) negatively forecast momentum. A one standard deviation increase in EPU is associated with a 1.11% decrease in risk-adjusted momentum returns. The predictive power of EPU is robust after controlling for previously documented...

We investigate how the interaction of entries and exits of informed institutional investors with market anomaly signals affects strategy performance. The long legs of anomalies earn more positive alphas following entries, while the short legs earn more negative alphas following exits. The...

We use the advent of new credit default swap (CDS) trading conventions in April 2009—the CDS Big Bang—to study how a shock to funding liquidity impacts market liquidity. After the Big Bang, traders are required to pay upfront fees to execute CDS transactions, with the size of the fees...

This paper investigates the cross predictability of intraday returns across 22 major cryptocurrencies. In contrast to the well-documented positive lead-lag effect in the equity market, we find a significantly negative lead-lag effect ("seesaw effect'') in the cryptocurrency market: The five...

We seek to reconcile the debate about the price effect of risk-neutral skewness (RNS) on stocks. We document positive predictability from short-term skewness, consistent with informed-trading demand, and negative predictability from long-term skewness, consistent with skewness preference. A term...

We construct a set of household-level background risk variables to capture the covariance structure of three nonfinancial assets and two financial assets. These risks are in general statistically significant and economically important for a household's stock market participation and stock...

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a...