Studies using standard unit-root tests generally cannot reject the hypothesis of a unit root in unemployment rates. These findings have been interpreted as supporting the hysteresis hypothesis. We demonstrate that the failure to reject the null may be due to the low power of the tests. We...

Previous studies show that the standard univariate unit root tests cannot reject the hypothesis that interest rates follow integrated processes. In this paper, we pool interest rate data of twelve OECD countries and implement a multivariate test. It is found that the unit root hypothesis can be...

If transitory profitable trading opportunities exist, filter rules are used in practice to mitigate transaction costs. The filter size is difficult to determine a priori. Our paper uses a dynamic programming framework to design a filter that is optimal in the sense of maximizing expected returns...

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a...

Previous studies show that the standard univariate unit root tests cannot reject the hypothesis that interest rates follow integrated processes. In this paper, the authors pool interest rate data of twelve OECD countries and implement a multivariate test. It is found that the unit root...