This paper studies the problem of trading futures with transaction costs when the underlying spot price is mean-reverting. Specifically, we model the spot dynamics by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR), or exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (XOU) model. The futures term structure...

Futures markets are known to be vulnerable to manipulation, and despite the presence of a variety of mechanisms to prevent such manipulation, instances of market manipulation have been found in some of the largest and most liquid futures markets worldwide. In 2013, the Securities and Exchange...

Using futures data for the period 1990 - 2008, this paper finds evidence that expansionary monetary policy surprises tend to increase crude and heating oil prices, and contractionary monetary policy shocks increase gold and platinum prices. Our analysis uncovers substantial heterogeneity in the...

Using CFTC's COT data, both GARCH and PARCH volatility based models found the lagged volatility and news about volatility from the previous month to be significant in explaining large hedgers' and speculators' volatility. The greater reliance on the ARCH term for speculators' suggested their...

We consider an agent who takes a short position in a contingent claim and employs limit orders (LOs) and market orders (MOs) to trade in the underlying asset to maximize expected utility of terminal wealth. The agent solves a combined optimal stopping and control problem where trading has...

This paper examines the impact of hedging and speculative pressures on the transition of the spot-futures relationships in the energy and metal markets. We build a Markov regime switching (MRS) model where hedging and speculative pressures affect the transition probabilities of spot-future...

This article compares traditional hedging that aims at covering spot price risk and selective hedging that also speculates by forecasting futures price changes. The selective hedges we consider use different forecasts that range from the historical average return to (V)AR model projections,...

This paper considers the realized returns of individual investors in warrants and leverage certificates. First, we derive a general formula that analytically decomposes the return into several economically meaningful components that are related to investor's trading behavior and the issuers'...

Using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders data, considering both the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and the power ARCH volatility-based models, it has been found that the lagged volatility and the news about volatility from the...