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We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751173
exposure to changes in the price of the underlying stock (delta), and exposure to changes in implied volatility (vega) are …-known market, size, book-to-market, momentum, and short-term reversal factors. Additional volatility, stock, and option market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111682
exposure to changes in the underlying stock price (delta), and exposure to changes in implied volatility (vega) are removed …-to-market, momentum, short-term reversal, volatility, or option market factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094978
Option-implied moments, like implied volatility, contain useful information about an underlying asset's return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399367
We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option implied variables for monthly S & P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) emerges as a strong predictor of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751188
We consider the frequency and correlation of extreme return observations or “jumps” across equities, Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, currencies, commodities, and real estate. Understanding more about jumps is important to investors as diversification across asset classes is diminished if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012933005
We study whether option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, contains information about future returns, especially the negative ones. Our tail loss measure predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100653
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
When the true asset pricing model cannot be identified, the idiosyncratic volatility obtained from a misspecified model … centuries, neither equal-weighted idiosyncratic volatility (EWIV) nor value-weighted idiosyncratic volatility (VWIV) can …, Cakici, Yan, and Zhang (2005) and reconcile their mixed findings between the idiosyncratic volatility and future stock market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847166