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We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
We propose a Multivariate Volatility Regulated Kelly strategy, which has extra penalization on variance compared to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960889
We apply a two-step strategy to forecast the dynamics of the volatility surface implicit in option prices to all …-post volatility of the minimum-variance portfolio is lower when compared with the equal-weighted portfolio and a minimum …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235957
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
In this paper we document that at the aggregate stock market level the unexpected volatility is negatively related to … expected future returns and positively related to future volatility. We demonstrate how the predictive ability of unexpected … volatility can be utilized in dynamic asset allocation strategies that deliver a substantial improvement in risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905132
This paper investigates how the two technical drivers, volatility and correlation, influence the algorithm of the …, which are double sorted on volatility and correlation between 1990 and 2014. Our findings are robust to liquidity issues …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969365
remains a question. Using a simple model to illustrate the linkage between idiosyncratic volatility and investor overreaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012436
Momentum is one of the largest and most pervasive market anomalies. However, despite a high mean and Sharpe ratio, momentum suffers from large negative skewness that comes from momentum crash periods. These crashes occur in times of both market stress and market rebound and thus variables that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026403
Compared with the market, value, or size factors, momentum has offered investors the highest Sharpe ratio. However, momentum has also had the worst crashes, making the strategy unappealing to investors who dislike negative skewness and kurtosis. We find that the risk of momentum is highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036981
both conditional volatility and skewness. This has first order implications for managing risks associated with momentum … investing: an adjusted momentum portfolio which hedges in real time for both volatility and skewness risk outperforms benchmark … constant and dynamic volatility-managed momentum strategies. This result holds for different levels of transaction costs and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403316