react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …

react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

of world output. The forecasts are compared to typical benchmarks: univariate autoregressive and random walk models …. Building on the forecast combination literature, the paper examines the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast …

The ability of Google Trends data to forecast the number of new daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 is examined using a …, Granger causality tests, and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise with 18 competing models with a forecast horizon of 14 days …

securitized mortgages in the United States resulted in a liquidity crisis. World stock markets peaked in October 2007 and then …, the world stock markets have rebounded, but strong uncertainties still remain. In order to get more insights into the … current world markets operation, we consider log-periodic models of price movements, which has been largely used in the past …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …