Before information φ arrives, market observers must be uncertain whether the stock price conditioned on φ will be higher or lower than the current price. Otherwise there is an obvious arbitrage opportunity. By assuming this minimal condition of efficient markets, it is shown under the...

The portfolio separating distribution is sufficient and necessary for a preference-free optimal choice only if the solution is assumed to be constant a priori. The portfolio separating condition is generalized. The new distribution class allowing for correlation uncertainty is defined as...

This Article develops an analytic framework for understanding the role of uncertainty in regulatory design. It begins by differentiating between three types of uncertainty: legal uncertainty, factual uncertainty, and uncertainty about the application of law to fact. This framework highlights the...

Optimistic beliefs affect important areas of economic decision making, yet direct knowledge on how belief biases operate remains limited. To better understand these biases I introduce a theoretical framework that trades off anticipatory benefits against two potential costs of forming biased...

Hoffmann (2018) attempts to reconstruct a typology of risks deemed more accurate and useful to both economists and risk managers than currently received views on the subject within mainstream economics/finance and Austrian economics. This comment argues that his criticisms of the Misesian...

Conventionally, information acquisition is motivated by its instrumental value – the value derived from adapting action to new knowledge. In this paper, we explore the notion of reassurance, whereby people seek to acquire information in order to remove lingering doubts or fears. We formulate...

We propose a novel interpretation and formalization of Kahneman and Tversky's findings in the Linda experiment which implies that subjects are rational in the sense of Muth's hypothesis and provides an approach to specifying rational assessment of uncertainty in macroeconomic models....

Kenneth Arrow and Karl Borch published several important articles in the early 1960s that can be viewed as the beginning of modern economic analysis of insurance activity. This chapter reviews the main theoretical and empirical contributions in insurance economics since that time. The review...

Managerial actions affect the survival probabilities of the keystone species of an ecological-economic system. In turn, the well-being of these keystone species translates into the well-being or the resilience of the underlying ecological-economic system. What are the theoretical links between...

Managerial actions influence the survival probabilities of the keystone species of an ecological-economic system. In turn, the well-being of these keystone species translates into the well-being or the resilience of the underlying ecological-economic system. What are the theoretical links...