We consider the Schwartz 97 two and three factor models, which have been considered as benchmarks for pricing commodity derivatives in the last two decades. In order to take account of sudden regime shifts in commodity prices, we superimpose a regime shifting structure onto this framework. Using...

This paper develops a closed-form model for options on commodities under the assumptions of mean-reversion in the commodity prices and regime-switching in the commodity returns volatility. After a closed-form solution for the option value in constant regimes has been developed, the model is...

We introduce a class of stochastic processes, which we refer to as Lyrebirds. These extend a class of stochastic processes, which have recently been coined as Peacocks, but are more commonly known as processes which are increasing in the convex order. We show how these processes arise naturally...

We consider the optimal harvesting problem for a fish farmer in a model which accounts for stochastic prices featuring a Schwartz 97 two factor price dynamics. Unlike any other literature in this context, we take account of the existence of a newly established market in salmon futures, which...

In this paper a pricing formula is derived for futures options in Schwartz 1997 two factor model with time dependent spot volatility. The pricing formula can be used like the Black-Scholes formula with observed volatility directly. Also, it can be used to find backwards the results of time...

Due to the increasing risk of inflation and diminishing pension benefits, insurance companies have started selling inflation-linked products. Selling such products the insurance company takes over some or all of the inflation risk from their customers. On the other side financial derivatives...

We consider a continuous time framework featuring a central bank, private agents and a financial market. The central bank's objective is to maximize a functional, which measures the classical trade-off between output and inflation over time plus income from the sales of inflation indexed bonds...

In this paper we propose a simple one-factor quantile regression model based on realized volatility to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR). The model only uses daily realized volatility as input and thus simplifies estimation substantially compared with most other methodologies currently used to...