I study whether or not countries' macroeconomic characteristics are systematically related to their currencies' exposure to the downside market risk. I find that currency downside risk is strongly associated with the local inflation rate, real interest rate and net foreign asset position....

This paper builds a model in which an agent infrequently adjusts her portfolio holdings of home and foreign equities. Since an investor on average holds on to her portfolio holdings for a longer duration, with volatile real exchange rate returns, her foreign equity holdings are likely to drift...

Exchange rate is quoted by dealers based on the order flow they receive. Market survey and FX market microstructure literature suggest that financial customers order flow is the most informative and leads total order flow. This paper explains exchange rate dynamics by linking financial customers...

Using a parametric portfolio optimization approach, I show how international momentum strategies can be significantly improved by decomposing global momentum returns. The parametrization models the optimal portfolio weights as a function of the decomposed components and overweights equity...

We establish the out-of-sample predictability of monthly exchange rate changes via machine learning techniques based on 70 predictors capturing country characteristics, global variables, and their interactions. To guard against overfitting, we use the elastic net to estimate a high-dimensional...

We derive a closed-form expression for the mean and marginal hedging demand on risky assets in long-term asset allocation problems for individuals with CRRA preferences. Our parametric portfolio policy rule accommodates an arbitrarily large number of state variables for predicting the state of...

We study investor trading behaviour and yield patterns in the UK government bond market during the recent Covid crisis. We show that the yield spike in mid-March 2020 was accompanied by heavy selling of gilts by UK-based insurance companies and pension funds (ICPFs), which we argue was an...

Frequent, yet uninformed, fund flows in Chilean pension plans generate substantial trading in currency markets due to the high allocation to international securities. These non-fundamental flows have a significant impact on the Chilean peso, which is estimated to have a relatively low price...

We analyze a large number of industry- and company-level filings of global institutional investors to provide the first comprehensive estimates of foreign investors' U.S. dollar (USD) security holdings and currency hedging practices. We find that foreign investors increased their holdings of USD...

We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX...