Abstract. Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent after the turn of the century even before the financial crisis. These deviations could be due to lower real interest rates, as stated by the savings glut hypothesis as well as the...

Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both...

In this paper a structural macroeconometric model for the Eurozone is presented. In opposite to the multi country modelling approach, the model relies on aggregate data on the supra-national level. Due to nonstationarity, all equations are estimated in an error correction form. The cointegrating...

The accumulation of the human capital stock plays a key role to explain the macroeconomic performance across regions. However, despite the strong theoretical support for this claim, empirical evidence has been not very convincing, probably because of the low quality of the data. This paper...

This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While...

This paper discusses a large-scale factor model for the German economy. Following the recent literature, a data set of 121 time series is used via principal component analysis to determine the factors, which enter a dynamic model for German GDP. The model is compared with alternative univariate...

The German economy continues to recover, and will grow by 2.2 percent in 2015. With slightly abated increases, the annual growth rate will be 1.9 percent in 2016. Driven by this favorable economic development, the unemployment rate will further decline, to 6.4 percent this year and 6.1 percent...

The integration of emerging markets into the global economy is heavily promoted by foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Within the factors driving the location of FDI, regional trade agreements (RTAs) become increasingly relevant for emerging markets. We explore the impact of South-South...

The German economy continues to recover, and will grow by 2.2 percent in 2015 and by 1.9 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate will further decline, to 6.4 percent this year and 6.1percent in 2016. Inflation, which averages 0.5 percent this year, will be substantially dampened by the slump in...