We develop an adaptive learning game to rethink the efficient markets hypothesis using the stochastically stable state of this game to characterize a richer set of market states than those suggested by the hypothesis. In particular, the model predicts that the economy may follow a path leading...

Standard financial models assume that capital markets are fully efficient, which makes asset prices unforecastable. In contrast, the behavioral finance argues that markets may not be efficient, at least in the short term, given the limits to arbitrage. Combining both strands of literature, our...

Standard financial models assume that capital markets are fully efficient, which makes asset prices unpredictable. In contrast, the behavioural finance argues that markets may not be efficient, at least in the short term, given the limits to arbitrage. Combining both strands of literature, our...

This paper addresses the long-standing question of whether asset prices are predictable. The common view holds that daily prices fully incorporate all available information, and therefore price changes are unforecastable. This conclusion does not necessarily hold when the vast bulk of market...

This paper address the long-standing question of whether asset prices are predictable. The common view holds that daily prices fully incorporate all available information, and therefore price changes are unforecastable. This conclusion does not necessarily hold when the vast bulk of market...

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

For a comprehensive set of 21 equity premium predictors we find dramatic disagreement between out-of-sample predictability results depending on the choice of the sample split date. To resolve this issue we propose reporting in graphical form the out-of-sample predictability criteria for every...

Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods...

A large set of macroeconomic variables have been suggested as equity risk premium predictors in the literature. This paper proposes a forecasting approach for the equity risk premium with two novel features. First, individual month-ahead forecasts are obtained from parsimonious threshold...

We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. We focus on U.S. equity premium forecastability and illustrate key issues via an empirical application based on updated data. Some studies...