Konjunkturzyklus. Es zeigt sich, dass der jahrzehntelange Aufwärtstrend der Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland vollständig durch Hysterese … erklärt werden kann. Dagegen folgte die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA keinem Hysterese-Muster, auch nicht während der großen … Rezession. Deutschland überstand diese Rezession so gut, weil sowohl Hysterese als auch strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit durch …

increased flow into unemployment in a recession is mainly due to reduced hirings, and hence lower job-to-job transitions, rather …

labor more important for unemployment. I differentiate jobs based on their hiring pool and estimate their wage cyclicality …. The key finding is that wages in jobs hiring from unemployment are half as cyclical as wages in other jobs, for both … incumbent workers and new hires. To measure the effects of this on unemployment volatility, I develop a labor search model with …

I compare unemployment expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to VAR forecastable movements in unemployment …. I document three key facts. First, one-half to one-third of the population expects unemployment to rise when it is … falling at the end of a recession even though the VAR predicts the fall in unemployment. Second, more people expect …

The paper attempts at disentangling the main sources of the rise in the Italian unemployment rate over the last four …. Unemployment movements are assumed to be driven by fully permanent and long-lived but temporary shocks. The component of … unemployment related to current and lagged demand shocks deriving from the sVAR estimation is found to be relevant and quite …