The main arguments in this paper can be simply stated: 1) If output in the US grows fast enough to keep unemployment constant between now and 2010 and if there is no further depreciation in the dollar, the deficit in the balance of trade is likely to get worse, perhaps reaching 7.5 per cent by...

Recent total government budget deficits, now running at about 3.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), have managed to partially rescue the U.S. economy from the full consequences of its long, debt-driven boom. But if we are to avoid a steep recession, much more will be needed

This study finds that while present monetary and fiscal policy stances are likely to lead to robust growth and improved employment, this would come only at the expense of high government deficits, record foreign deficits, and rising ratios of government and foreign debt relative to GDP. Even...

The paper argues in favor of significant budget deficits based on the understanding that the expansion of the 1990s was fueled by a great build-up of debt, and that this would eventually give way to a severe recession unless offset by a strong fiscal stimulus. In 2001, with the total government...

As we projected in the previous strategic analysis paper, the U.S. economy experienced growth rates higher than 4 percent in 2004. The question we want to raise in this new strategic analysis paper is whether these rates will persist or come back down. We believe that several signs point in the...