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The scarring effects of deep contractions
Aikman, David; Drehmann, Mathias; Juselius, Mikael; … - 2022
We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear and asymmetric: there is no such persistence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013382160
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A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis
Wieland, Volker; Cwik, Tobias; Müller, Gernot J.; … - 2012
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomicmodeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391307
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Does U.S. monetary policy respond to macroeconomic uncertainty?
Gomez, Thomas; Piccillo, Giulia - 2023
We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014265941
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Central bank policies and climate change : where do we stand?
Vollmer, Uwe - In: Credit and capital markets : Kredit und Kapital 55 (2022) 3, pp. 381-411
The article reviews the literature on the relationship between climate change and central bank policies. Central banks conduct monetary policy and are responsible for macroprudential supervision. The article focuses on the consequences of transition and physical risks for financial stability and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014518593
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Policy risk and the business cycle
Born, Benjamin; Pfeifer, Johannes - 2013 - This version: July 11, 2013, First Version: December 2010
The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009772961
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Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Credit Risk and China's Business Cycles
Li, Li - 2019
economic activities are much stronger and more persistent when the economy enters the high credit risk regime.Simulations from … the nonlinear DSGE model featuring credit risk and uncertainty shock confirm that banks' credit risks might be potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896018
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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During the Great Recession
Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni - 2021
We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235107
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Policy risk and the business cycle
Born, Benjamin; Peifer, Johannes - 2011 - This version: June 1, 2011
The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009126071
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Uncertainty and monetary policy during the great recession
Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni - 2021
We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012495676
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Tracking global economic uncertainty : implications for the euro area
Bobasu, Alina; Geis, André; Quaglietti, Lucia; Ricci, … - 2021
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567