Five articles in this special edition of the BIS Quarterly Review provide new insights about foreign exchange (FX) and over-the-counter derivatives markets by drawing on the data compiled in the 2022 BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey. In the FX space, an accelerating shift towards less "visible"...

We compare the effects of the US macro news on the exchange rates of carry trade target currencies and safe-haven currencies in the post-GFC period. Relying on the data of 5-min changes of exchange rates, we find significant responses of currencies to the surprises of the US macro news. The...

This study investigates the connectedness between Bitcoin and fiat currencies in two groups of countries: the developed G7 and the emerging BRICS. The methodology adopts the regular (R)-vine copula and compares it with two benchmark models: the multivariate t copula and the dynamic conditional...

We investigate possible presence of time-varying risk premia in forward pound, yen,and Euro monthly exchange rates versus the US dollar 3 over the last two decades. We study this issue using regression techniques and separately using a signal plus noise model. Our models account for time-varying...

Carry trade strategies in which investors sell forward currencies that are at a forward premium and buy forward currencies that are at a forward discount are, on average, profitable. According to the uncovered interest rate parity they should not. A risk premia story might justify the high...

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero...

FX markets for the currencies of emerging market economies grew more rapidly than those for major currencies between 2016 and 2019, rising from 19% to almost 25% of global turnover. At the same time, these currencies attracted a wider range of participants and saw a rapid increase in offshore...

In this paper, I introduce the modeling of currency returns conditional on the interest rate differential and the real exchange rate under the assumption that FX returns are skew-t distributed. Beyond the well-known relationship between the currency risk premium and its risk factors, I document...

This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the dollar-yen exchange rate in the long run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is...

Since the Fall of 2008, out-of-the money puts on high interest rate currencies have become significantly more expensive than out-of-the-money calls, suggesting a large crash risk of those currencies. To evaluate crash risk precisely, we propose a parsimonious structural model that includes both...