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Cyclical and structural variation in resource allocation : evidence for Europe

Bartelsman, Eric J.; López-García, Paloma; … - 2018

This paper uses cross-country micro-aggregated data on firm dynamics and productivity from the ECB CompNet database to provide empirical evidence on factor reallocation in the European Union (EU). The analysis finds that reallocation is towards more productive firms although the magnitude varies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011937320

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

An, Zidong - 2019

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864122

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Cerra, Valerie - 2020

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830838

A Menu on Output Gap Estimation Methods

Álvarez, Luis J. - 2017

This paper presents a survey of output gap modeling techniques, which are of special interest for policy making institutions. We distinguish between univariate - which estimate trend output on the basis of actual output, without taking into account the information contained in other variables -...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955650

Scarring Recessions and Credit Constraints : Evidence from Colombian Plant Dynamics

Eslava, Marcela - 2015

Using a rich dataset of Colombian manufacturing establishments, we illustrate scarring effects of recessions operating through inefficient exit induced by heterogeneous credit constraints. We show that financially constrained businesses may be forced to exit the market during recessions even if...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038462

Incomplete Markets, Growth, and the Business Cycle

Angeletos, George-Marios; Calvet, Laurent E. - 2013

We introduce a Ramsey growth model with incomplete markets, decentralized production, and idiosyncratic technological risk. The combination of uninsurable shocks with the precautionary motive can slow down capital accumulation or give rise to persistent fluctuations even when agents are very...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014036534

Bridging the Gap between the Short and the Long Run in Macroeconomics : Outline of the GSMS-SS Model of Economic Growth and the Business Cycle

Mueller, Antony P. - 2014

The GSMS-SS model shows under which conditions credit-driven economic expansions are unsustainable and how such booms revert into busts. If central banks pursue a policy of inflation targeting and prevent deflation from happening when technological progress would lower the price level, they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013058914

Supply or demand? : policy makers' confusion in the pesence of hysteresis

Fatás, Antonio; Singh, Sanjay R. - 2022

aggregate demand policies. In this paper we study the case of a central bank that ignores the presence of hysteresis when … bank that mistakes a demand shock for a supply shock, will produce permanent effects on output through their suboptimal … policies. Ex-post, the central bank will see an economy that resembles what they had forecast when designing their policies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013179263

Output gap determinants in Ethiopia

Degu, Adisu Abebaw - In: Cogent economics & finance 9 (2021) 1, pp. 1-15

The output gap measured as the percentage deviation of actual output from its potential level is an indicator of an economy's achievement. Output gap has been an important concept used for forming of policies. In this study, we estimated the potential output and output gap, established some of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013183772

Demand Cycles and Heterogeneous Conformity Preferences

Baumann, Leonie - 2020

We explore the dynamics of demand for n designs of a good when agents have preferences for (anti-)conformity. Agents differ in their social status and each agent seeks to imitate those of higher status and to distinguish herself from those of lower status, relative to her own status. In each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853696