Given the indisputable cost of policy inaction in the run-up to banking crises as well as the negative side effects of unwarranted policy activation, policymakers would strongly benefit from earlywarning thresholds that more accurately predict crises and produce fewer false alarms. This paper...

The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...

This paper describes concepts and tools behind macroprudential monitoring, and the growing importance of macroprudential tools for assessing the stability of financial systems. This paper also employs a macroprudential approach in examining financial soundness and identifying its determinants....

This paper describes concepts and tools behind macroprudential monitoring and the growing importance of macroprudential tools for assessing the stability of financial systems. This paper also employs a macroprudential approach in examining financial soundness and identifying its determinants....

Despite abundant empirical evidence on the merits and limits of early-warning systems for banking crises the day-to-day use of such systems seems to be limited. Reluctance to use such systems may partly be explained by the difficulties to operationalise the proposed models, which are often...

This paper develops an analytical framework that can be used to anticipate problems in the banking system and enable supervisors to take mitigating actions at an early stage. This paper has two components. First, it develops an early warning indicator that is intended to capture a number of the...

In this paper, we construct a banking sector fragility index (BSFI) to measure the levels of fragility and risk-taking within the Ghanaian banking sector. The BSFI identified three main episodes of excessive risk-taking and four periods of high fragility over the study period. Of the four...

Over the past two decades, Germany experienced several periods of banking system instability rather than full-blown banking system crises. In this paper we introduce a continuous and forward-looking stability indicator for the banking system based on information on all financial institutions in...

Household and international debt (cross-border or in foreign currency) are a potential source of vulnerabilities that could eventually lead to banking crises. We explore this issue formally by assessing the performance of these debt categories as early warning indicators (EWIs) for systemic...