We study information processing in a simple endowment economy where the mean consumption growth rate are governed by a hidden state variable and agents have recursive preferences. We show that for typical parameter values, there is a strong incentive to commit to ignoring future information on...

We investigate the relationship between the information on the state of the economy and equity risk premium. In this, we use a setup where investors have Epstein-Zin preferences and the economy switches between booms and recessions randomly. We are able to establish two key results: First, we...

We estimate time varying risk sensitivities on a wide range of stocks' portfolios of the US market. We empirically test, on a 1926-2004 Monthly CRSP database, a classic one factor model augmented with a time varying specification of betas. Using a Kalman filter based on a genetic algorithm, we...

We compare in a backtesting study the performance of univariate models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall based on stable laws and on extreme value theory (EVT). Analyzing these different approaches, we test whether the sum - stability assumption or the max - stability assumption,...

We estimate short- and long-run tax elasticities that capture the relationship between changes in national income and tax revenue. We show that the short-run tax elasticity changes according to the business cycle. We estimate a two state Markov-switching regression on a novel dataset of tax...

The change of national income brings about tax revenue change. This relationship is embodied in the tax elasticity and usefully estimated both for the long-run and the short-run. In this paper we show that the short-run tax elasticity - the percent change in the tax revenue in response to a one...

We construct a New Keynesian DSGE model that features financial frictions, investment frictions, long-run productivity risk, and Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences. The model successfully reproduces key features of both asset prices and macroeconomic quantities. Under this set up, we examine the...

We conduct an empirical analysis of a hand-collected sample of 2,376 turnovers of soccer managers in the four major English leagues in the seasons from 1949/50 to 2007/08. While the relation between the probability of a manager being fired and long-term performance remained remarkably stable,...

The aim of this paper is to study the pricing factor structure of Italian equity returns. Using twenty-five years of data, we focus on the role of other risk factors besides the market beta, namely size, book to market, and momentum. A two step empirical analysis is provided where first we...

We develop a model of asset pricing assuming that investor's behavior is habit forming. The model predicts that the effect of consumption growth shocks on the risk premium depends on the business cycle phase of the economy. This empirical implication is tested with a Markov-switching VAR model...