We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides usually yield different results and the official GDP...

Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market we estimate the relationship of house prices and explanatory macroeconomic variables in Germany using a regional panel dataset for 402 administrative districts. Using regional data exploits the variation across local housing markets and overcomes...

This paper offers several contributions to actual research and discussion on monetary policy. It clarifies the relationship between uncertainty of inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy and discusses the consequences of the recent Blanchard proposal to implement a higher inflation...

This paper indicates a contradiction with respect to the optimal neutral policy rate between two seminal contributions on the implications of uncertain economic dynamics for optimal monetary policy. While Craine (1979) implies tighter policy, Söderström (2002) finds certainty equivalence. This...

This paper is an application of the framework developed in Pinkwart (2010a), which allows to analyze changes of the monetary policy regime under uncertain inflation dynamics that alter the steady state properties of the underlying model as well as the stochastic dependencies between model...