In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among...

This paper develops a methodology to test whether recent developments on world oil markets are in line with the hypothesis of efficient markets. We treat the joint hypothesis problem as stated by Fama (1970), Fama (1991), that market efficiency can only be assessed in conjunction with a price...

In a well-functioning futures market, the futures price at expiration equals the price of the underlying asset. This condition failed to hold in grain markets for most of 2005-10. During this period, futures contracts expired up to 35% above the cash grain price. We develop a rational...

This paper investigates the relationship between futures prices and financial investments in derivatives of the main agricultural commodities. We first provide a broad picture of how these markets function and how they have evolved, showing that traders who deal mostly in commodity index...

In this paper, we examine the role that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) plays in the global price discovery of soybean futures. We employ Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models on the returns of the DCE and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean...

This paper introduces a novel method for pricing commodity index derivatives consistently with market prices of derivatives on single commodities. We discuss the Black, mean-reversion and local volatility pricing models with special attention paid to the parameterization of volatility surfaces....

We find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure mainly via...

This paper examines hedging effectiveness of four agricultural (Soybean, Corn, Castor seed and Guar seed) and seven non-agricultural (Gold, Silver, Aluminium, Copper, Zinc, Crude oil and Natural gas) futures contracts traded in India. We apply VECM and CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge...

In a seminal article, Samuelson (1965) [Samuelson, P. A. (1965), “Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly,” Industrial Management Review 6, 41–49.] proposes the maturity effect that the volatility of futures prices should increase as futures contract approaches maturity....