In this paper we develop a novel bank failure prediction approach that uses the output of a multiperiod logit model to assess banks' risk situations and then estimates a survival time model for the subset of at-risk (quot;illquot;) banks. Our empirical analysis reveals that this two-step...

Should banks be diversified or focused? Does diversification indeed lead to increased performance and therefore greater safety on the part of banks as traditional portfolio and banking theory would suggest? This paper investigates the link between banks' profitability and their portfolio...

In this paper models of default prediction conditional on financial statements of Austrian firms are presented. Apart from giving a discussion on the suggested 65 variables the issue of potential problems in developing rating models is raised and possible solutions are reviewed. A unique data...

Should banks be diversified or focused? Does diversification indeed lead to enhanced performance and, therefore, greater safety for banks, as traditional portfolio and banking theory would suggest? This paper investigates the link between banks? profitability (ROA) and their portfolio...

Assessing the discriminative power of rating systems is an important question to banks and to regulators. In this article we analyze the Cumulative Accuracy Profile (CAP) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) which are both commonly used in practice. We give a test-theoretic...