We build an agent-based dynamical system for the global economy to investigate and analyze financial crises. The agents are large aggregates of a subeconomy, and the global economy is a collection of subeconomies. We use well-known theories of dynamical systems to represent a financial crisis as...

The impact of increasing leverage in the economy produces hyperreaction of market participants to variations of their revenues. If the income of banks decreases, they mass-reduce their lendings; if corporations sales drop, and due to existing debt they cannot adjust their liquidities by further...

We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, we analyze the dynamics of co-movement at different levels of aggregation and...

The authors analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, they analyze the dynamics of co-movement and compare recent...

We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption uctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy...

Detecting and measuring financial stress and its systemic risk channels have been one of the main concerns for authorities and financial supervisors especially after the financial crisis from 2008. In this paper, we aim to build a financial stress index (FSI) for Romania using monthly data from...

Financial and economic crises repeat themselves at indefinite intervals. As in the Great Recession (also known as Subprime Crisis) of 2007/2008 there was a bundle of events and processes that preceded it and contributed to its emergence, whether it be economic, political, or ideological. Based...

Financial and economic crises repeat themselves at indefinite intervals. As in the Great Recession (also known as Subprime Crisis) of 2007/2008 there was a bundle of events and processes that preceded it and contributed to its emergence, whether it be economic, political, or ideological. Based...

Several developing economies witnessed a large number of systemic financial and currency crises since the 1980s which resulted in severe economic, social, and political problems. The devastating impact of the 1982 and 1994-95 Mexican crises, the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian...