In this study two approaches are applied for the prediction of the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. The … of the two approaches is evaluated during the out-of sample period 2007-2010. The estimation results show that the ANFIS …

only USA but the rest of the world. The wrong government policies and the regulations in bond market among others lead to … order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. The first one is the Logit model, the second is the … in-sample period 1913-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The estimation results indicate …

with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than …

In this paper we examine three binary regressions in order to predict the financial crisis or no crisis periods in USA … in the out-of sample period, which is defined the period 2006-2009. Next we repeat the estimation process for the period …