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enables a Wald-type conditional quantile forecast encompassing test for any finite set of competing (semi …, fixed income and commodity trading desks. Forecast combination of both types of models is especially warranted for more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092448
We define the Multidimensional Value at Risk (MVaR) as a natural generalization of VaR. This generalization makes a number of important applications possible. For example, many techniques developed for VaR can be applied to MVaR directly. As an illustration, we employ VaR forecasting and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871618
conditional volatilities and correlations, the distribution for the innovations and the method of forecast construction. We find … smaller. The differences from the model, distribution and forecast choices are also smaller compared to temporal aggregation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970357
Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little … therefore develop graphical checks (Murphy diagrams) of whether one forecast method dominates another under a relevant class of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663466
standalone forecasts, which results in poor forecast performance of the non- regularized estimator due to unstable combination … forecast combination approaches. This is particularly evident during the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949306
Multidimensional Value at Risk (MVaR) generalises VaR in a natural way as the intersection of univariate VaRs. We reduce the dimensionality of MVaRs which allows for adapting the techniques and applications developed for VaR to MVaR. As an illustration, we employ VaR forecasting and evaluation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014120778
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008660179
The empirical joint distribution of return-pairs on stock indices displays high tail-dependence in the lower tail and low tail-dependence in the upper tail. The presence of tail-dependence is not compatible with the assumption of (conditional) joint normality. The presence of asymmetric-tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009725481
This study investigates the simplicity and adequacy of tail-based risk measures-valueat-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES)-when applied to tail targeting of the extreme value (EV) model. We implement Lévy-VaR and ES risk measures as full density-based alternatives to the generalized Pareto...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014547241
We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic is a spectral transformation that … novel variants as well. In an empirical application, we backtest forecast distributions for the overnight P&L of ten bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011927115