This paper proposes a variant application of the Merton distance-to-default model by employing implied volatility and implied a cost of capital to forecast defaults. The proposed model's results are compared with predictions obtained from three popular models in different setups. We find that...

There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. We introduce a simple...

Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...

Most studies focusing on the determinants of loss given default (LGD) have largely ignored possible lagged effects of the macroeconomy on LGD. We fill this gap by employing a wide set of macroeconomic covariates on a retail portfolio that represents 15% of the Czech consumer credit market over...

We discuss a simple, exactly solvable model of stochastic stock dynamics that incorporates regime switching between healthy and distressed regimes. Using this model, which is analytically tractable, we discuss a way of extracting expected returns for stocks from realized CDS spreads,...

In this paper, we have studied the pricing of a continuously collateralized CDS. We have made use of the "survival measure" to derive the pricing formula in a straightforward way. As a result, we have found that there exists irremovable trace of the counter party as well as the investor in the...

We develop a methodology to study the linkages between equity and corporate bond risk premia and apply it to a large panel of corporate bond transaction data. We and that a significant part of the time variation in bond default risk premia can be explained by equity implied bond risk premium...

In this paper we present a tree model for defaultable bond prices which can be used for the pricing of credit derivatives. The model is based upon the two-factor Hull-White (1994) model for default-free interest rates, where one of the factors is taken to be the credit spread of the defaultable...