This paper develops a utility model for evaluating lotteries. In estimating utility, risk averse people use an asymmetric loss function. Expected utility is seen as a special case that is a good approximation in some cases. The model resolves several paradoxes and makes easily falsifiable...

This paper develops a utility model for evaluating lotteries. In estimating utility, risk averse people use an asymmetric loss function. Expected utility is seen as a special case that is a good approximation of the general case in some cases. The model resolves several paradoxes and makes...

<Para ID="Par1"> Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial for designing effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption, and public...</para>

Prior research suggests that those who rely on intuition rather than effortful reasoning when making decisions are less averse to risk and ambiguity. The evidence is largely correlational, however, leaving open the question of the direction of causality. In this paper, we present experimental...

In this paper, we extend von Neumann and Morgenstern’s expected utility approach to a non-commutative probability theory. We introduce a new representation of the decision maker’s set of events which extends the canonical representation. We reformulate von Neumann and Morgenstern’s...

This article evaluates Herbert A. Simon’s contribution to organization theory, placing special emphasis on the criterion of bounded rationality. Simon’s criticism of the orthodox version of organizational bureaucracy is interpreted and his analysis is extended to institutional economics. One...

Expected value theory has been known for centuries to be subject to critique by St. Petersburg paradox arguments. And there is a traditional rebuttal of the critique that denies the empirical relevance of the paradox because of its apparent dependence on existence of credible offers to pay...

Arrow-Debreu state preference approach to derivatives pricing is embedded into decision theoretical framework. Derivatives prices are considered as decision variables. Axiomatic decision theory, concerned with the attitude toward uncertainty and existence of closed in *-weak topology sets of...

The Expected Value of Information Framework has been proposed as a method for identifying when health care technologies should be reimbursed and when reimbursement should be withheld awaiting more evidence. The standard framework assesses the value of having additional evidence available to...