In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push†factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk...

The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time exchange rate model that allows for heterogeneity of the agents' beliefs, in order to explore non-linearities and possible chaotic behaviour. The theoretical model contains an intrinsic non-linearity that gives rise to a jerk differential...

Graph of the month Oil price and exchange rate of the Russian rouble, 2008-2014 (p. 1) Opinion corner Is Jean-Claude Juncker's EUR 315 billion European investment plan the proper answer to the EU's anaemic economic performance? (by Sándor Richter, Roman Römisch and Roman Stöllinger; pp. 2-4)...

The novelty of this paper is to use national rate of assistance (NRA) to assess the impact of domestic support on food security vulnerability to trade. We first build a theoretical framework linking the vulnerability of food security to trade and national policy intervention in agriculture....

Due to an increase in export shares of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine (KRU) the competition in global wheat market has become more intense during the last decade. Hence, this study aims to analyze the market structure of KRU over the period 2004-2010. By using the gravity trade model and Poisson...

The study takes a cursory look at reaction of macroeconomic variables due to exchange rate shocks of four selected WAMZ countries in order to assess the level of macroeconomic convergence in the zone between the declaration’s year of WAMZ, 2000 and 2010 using Structural VAR country by...

India received, over the past two decades substantial amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the determinants of FDI inflows in India using time series data for the period 2001-02 to 2011-12. In the analysis, FDI inflows are...

Using the “trilemma indexes†developed by Aizenman et al. (2010) that measure the extent ofachievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma—monetary independence, exchange ratestability, and financial openness—we examine how policy configurations affect...

Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R 2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a naïve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

This study demonstrates why devaluation was ultimately necessary in Malawi and also what its eventual impact might be in terms of prices, income distribution, and domestic production. Our approach is to use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the economywide impacts of...