Trading strategies are valued using non-linear conditional expectations with respect to non-additive probabilities in a discrete time Markovian context. Non-additive probabilities attain conservatism by exaggerating upwards tail loss events and exaggerating downwards tail gain events. Steady...

Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) is a structured product created on the basis of a trading strategy. The idea of the strategy is to have an exposure to the upside potential of a risky asset while providing a capital guarantee against downside risk with the additional feature that...

The bilateral gamma model for returns is naturally derived from the lognormal model. Maximizing entropy in a random time change delivers the symmetric variance gamma model. The asymmetric variance gamma follows on incorporating skewness. Differential speeds for the upward and downward motions...

A Markov chain with an expanding non-uniform grid matching risk neutral marginal distributions is constructed. Conditional distributions of the chain are in the variance gamma class with prespecified skewness and excess kurtosis. Time change and space scale volatilities are calibrated from...

To evaluate the aggregate risk in a financial or insurance portfolio, a risk analyst has to calculate the distribution function of a sum of random variables. As the individual risk factors are often positively dependent, the classical convolution technique will not be sufficient. On the other...

In this paper, we propose a new fear index based on (equity) option surfaces of an index and its components. The quantification of the fear level will be solely based on option price data. The index takes into account market risk via the VIX volatility barometer, liquidity risk via the concept...