Showing 121 - 130 of 381,746
In assessing drivers of commodity prices and volatility at this stage of the current super-cycle in commodities (year …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120803
We propose a model of volatility tail behavior, in which the pricing measure dominates the physical measure in both … tails of the volatility distribution and, hence, the derived pricing kernel exhibits an increasing and decreasing region in … the volatility dimension. The model features investors who have heterogeneity in beliefs about volatility outcomes, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108996
This paper studies the predictability of S&P500 returns using short term risk premia as a conditioning variable. We construct dividend prices using futures data and identify short term risk premia by projecting excess returns of dividend claims on their lagged prices. Regression results for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091355
empirically analyze the behaviour of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two … price volatility is a decreasing function of inventory for the majority of commodities in our sample. This effect is more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092243
This paper develops a new approach for variance trading. We show that the discretely-sampled realized variance can be robustly replicated under very general conditions, including when the price can jump. The replication strategy specifies the exact timing for rebalancing in the underlying. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067300
In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time … method. The support for a stochastic volatility model including jumps in both prices and volatility is strong and the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013070384
As the price of crude oil doubled from June 2007 to June 2008, suspicion grew that price was being driven higher by speculation rather than fundamental supply and demand. After having seen the price drop 70 percent from its peak, this explanation may appear more plausible than ever. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013070697
-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by allowing both a long- and a short-run volatility components in the evolution of … economic fundamentals. With this extension, the new model not only is consistent with the volatility literature that the stock … market is driven by two, rather than one, volatility factors, but also provides significant improvements in fitting various …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071174
untapped area. China, India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, and U.S. futures markets are included in the sample. The volatility linkage …We aim to detect the cross-border volatility linkages among gold futures in emerging markets, which still remain an … analyses confirm the existence of volatility transmission among the majority of the sample countries' gold futures. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014404
This paper proposes a novel approach to assessing volatility contagion across equity markets. I decompose the variance … volatility contagion. This suggests that investors believe that equity returns will be more highly correlated across countries … approach to testing the existence of volatility contagion does not rely on short periods of financial distress, but allows for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014533