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Based on daily data from 1989-2016 we find that the correlations between some relevant commodity market futures and equity returns in the aggregate U.S. market, and specifically in the energy sector stocks have changed strongly during the stock market crisis periods. The correlation between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949196
100 US dollars again. This study explains the volatility of petroleum futures contracts as low and high volatility in two … January 1990 to October 2017, the transition probabilities and durations between two different volatility regimes of oil … futures prices are explained. The volatility of the oil futures contract is switching between two regimes with low volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914438
international option returns exhibits a mispricing by sorting on ex-ante volatility returns. In addition, selling international ETP … economically large and pervasive internationally, whereas they are comparably small domestically. While volatility hedge funds are … exposed towards domestic option products, they neglect the possibility of engaging in foreign volatility arbitrage. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915950
We document a higher bond return volatility around the time of default for bonds included in CDS auctions (especially … stock return volatility of CDS firms and non-CDS firms around the time of default. These results are more consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846414
In this paper we consider the generation of implied volatility risk scenarios, with a special focus on swaption implied … volatility smile, e.g., as modeled by a displaced SABR model.The generation of implied volatility risk scenarios is much more … demanding than other risk factors, like interest rates curve, since a volatility surface (or cube) usually involves more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982556
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
We investigate the informational content of options-implied probability density functions (PDFs) for the future price of oil. Using a semiparametric variant of the methodology in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978), we investigate the fit and smoothness of distributions derived from alternative PDF...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014121073
This study decomposes a momentum factor (MOM) in the commodity futures market. A high-to-price (HTP) factor generates a higher Sharpe ratio than a price-to-high (PTH) factor. We uncover that the profitability mechanisms across three momentum factors are different. The positive returns on MOM and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403618
This study examines the connectedness and time-frequency correlation of price volatility across the Chinese stock … market and major commodity markets. This paper applies a DCC-GARCH-based volatility connectedness model and the cross … spillovers in the system throughout the sample period, but the Chinese market plays the role of a net receiver of volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405070
This study investigates how prices respond to unanticipated crude oil inventory shocks and how quickly the markets incorporate news in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil futures markets by using structured vector autoregression (SVAR) models based on EIA inventory report announcement and news...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307507