Kaldor (1939) and Working (1948,1949) note that a commodity's backwardation is very much related to temporary scarcity. To them, the obvious measure of scarcity is the current level of inventories relative to a normal level. In 1987-2007 data, however, the spot price has become much more...

This paper examines the roles of futures prices of crude oil, gasoline, ethanol, corn, soybeans and sugar in the energy-grain nexus. It also investigates the own- and cross-market impacts for lagged grain trading volume and open interest in the energy and grain markets. According to the results,...

I investigate how local supply shocks in the globally distributed production of commodities are incorporated into CME futures prices. I exploit that the soybean market share of the US (Argentina) decreased (increased) between 1996 and 2010, and use rain, which tends to increase output, as a...

This paper embeds a staggered price feature into the standard speculative storage model of Deaton and Laroque (1996). Intermediate goods inventory speculators are added as an additional source of intertemporal linkage, which helps us to replicate the stylized facts of the observed commodity...

This paper embeds a staggered price feature into the standard speculative storage model of Deaton and Laroque (1996). Intermediate goods inventory speculators are added as an additional source of intertemporal linkage, which helps us to replicate the stylized facts of the observed commodity...