Bonato, Matteo; Çepni, Oğuzhan; Gupta, Rangan; … - In: Journal of Forecasting 42 (2022) 4, pp. 785-801
We examine the predictive value of El Niño and La Niña weather episodes for the subsequent realized variance of 16 agricultural commodity prices. To this end, we use high‐frequency data covering the period from 2009 to 2020 to estimate the realized variance along realized skewness, realized...